Gain or Loss

Analyzing the foreign exchange cycles over the past 36 months reveals a landscape defined by post-pandemic inflation recovery, shifting central bank policies, and major supply chain realignments.

For global trade, these currency fluctuations directly dictate cross-border cost forecasting, vendor margins, and the ultimate landed costs of imported goods.

Here is a breakdown of the 12, 24, and 36-month exchange rate cycles for these major export markets against the US Dollar (USD), current as of April 2026.

The 36-Month Exchange Rate Cycle

Note: With the exception of the Euro (which is quoted in USD per 1 EUR), all rates below represent Local Currency per 1 USD. Higher numbers mean the USD is stronger and the local currency is weaker.

Currency Pair

Apr 2023 (36M)

Apr 2024 (24M)

Apr 2025 (12M)

Apr 2026 (Current)

3-Year Trend vs. USD

USD/MXN (Mexico)

~18.05

~16.55

~19.60

~17.90

Volatile / Flat

USD/MYR (Malaysia)

~4.40

~4.75

~4.40

~4.03

Appreciating

USD/INR (India)

~82.00

~83.40

~85.50

~92.70

Depreciating

USD/CNY (China)

~6.90

~7.24

~7.30

~6.88

Appreciating (Recent)

USD/PHP (Philippines)

~55.00

~57.00

~58.50

~60.70

Depreciating

EUR/USD (Eurozone)

~1.10

~1.08

~1.05

~1.15

Appreciating

Trending Drivers & Macro Reasons

1. Malaysia (MYR) & China (CNY) — The Appreciators

  • Malaysia: The Ringgit is a massive turnaround story. It struggled with capital outflows in 2023 and early 2024 due to high US interest rates. However, central bank mandates encouraging the repatriation of corporate foreign earnings, combined with a surge in foreign direct investment (FDI) in the semiconductor sector, drove a historic rally down to the 4.03 level by 2026.
  • China: The Yuan weakened through 2024 and 2025 (crossing 7.30) amid domestic property sector headwinds and the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cutting rates to stimulate the economy. By early 2026, the traction from fiscal stimulus packages, a rebounding export sector, and a softening US Dollar allowed the CNY to roar back to 6.88.

2. India (INR) & Philippines (PHP) — The Steady Depreciators

  • Both the Rupee and the Peso have seen controlled, steady depreciations. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) have generally allowed their currencies to slide to absorb global inflation shocks. For India, pushing past the 90-mark in late 2025/early 2026 reflects a strategy to manage trade deficits while keeping its booming manufacturing and service sectors highly attractive to foreign capital.

3. Mexico (MXN) — The Volatile “Nearshoring” Proxy

  • The Mexican Peso has been a rollercoaster. It surged to historic highs in early 2024 (the “Super Peso” era at ~16.55) driven by massive nearshoring investments and high local interest rates. It violently corrected in early 2025 due to domestic political reforms and US trade policy noise, before stabilizing around 17.90 today as North American supply chains cemented their long-term infrastructure.

4. Eurozone (EUR) — The Rate-Driven Rebound

  • The Euro dipped heavily in 2024 and early 2025 as Germany’s industrial engine stalled and the region faced an energy-induced economic hangover. It has since surged back to $1.15. This was largely driven by the European Central Bank (ECB) maintaining a tighter monetary policy while the US Federal Reserve engaged in heavier rate cuts.

Impact on Exporter Competitiveness & Global Sourcing

When assessing international trade dynamics, currency valuations fundamentally shift the cost-benefit analysis for global sourcing operations.

When the Currency Depreciates (INR, PHP)

  • Competitiveness: Gained. * The Impact: Exporters in India and the Philippines become significantly more competitive on the global stage. A weaker local currency lowers procurement costs, labor overhead, and landed costs in USD terms. This provides a massive advantage for international buyers scaling their supply chain or looking for BPO (Business Process Outsourcing) arbitrage. The downside for these nations is that importing raw materials becomes more expensive, which can eat into the margins of goods that require heavy foreign inputs.

When the Currency Appreciates (MYR, EUR, CNY)

  • Competitiveness: Lost (or Challenged).
  • The Impact: Goods exported from Malaysia, the Eurozone, and China are now more expensive for US buyers than they were 12 to 24 months ago. This compresses vendor margins. To maintain their contracts, factories and suppliers in these regions can no longer compete purely on cost; they are forced to compete on efficiency, automation, quality, and moving up the value chain (such as Malaysia’s focus on high-end tech manufacturing).

When the Currency is Volatile (MXN)

  • Competitiveness: Mixed.
  • The Impact: While Mexico benefits structurally from proximity to the US, severe FX volatility creates a headache for cross-border cost forecasting. When the Peso was at 16.55, Mexican exporters lost massive competitiveness, and US importers felt the pain of inflated dollar-denominated factory costs. Now that it has settled closer to 18.00, exporters have regained some breathing room, but the volatility requires robust currency hedging strategies to protect long-term sourcing agreements.